Covid-19 was declared the top news through mid-March to April in India. The conventional phrase in the media for such themes is ‘flavour’. (The ‘flavour’ of these few weeks was Covid). Like all flavours, it was expected to grab attention and pass away yielding place to new ones. No such thing happened. A top political authority in the land with his usual penchant referred to the 18 days needed to conclude Mahabharat and instead asked for a higher quota of 21 days to defeat Covid-19. The people believed him because they believe him. His deep political sense has evoked global acclaim. He has underscored it in his speeches in the Parliament. Add to it the advantage that he has an absolute choice to pick his advisors. Presumably, they are the best of the breed (at least that is what is assumed!). He, like many people of his position, has a personal staff to do all his referencing. Hence he cannot be taken as a victim to an error of judgement of which normal mortals can be prone to. Be that as it may, the 21 days came and went and the problem became bigger.
There is never an ‘error’ in a forecast. It arises out certain assumptions and certain calculations The error is forever in the confidence reposed in the forecast. A forecast is not just a statistical essay – it doesn’t matter whether it is done in Cambridge University or in the proverbial Timbuktu. There are forecasts and forecasts. Any output is as good as the input. Someday, some statistician will do an analysis of the different routes of calculation and explain the fallacy of errors and assumptions. That day is still far off.
As of now the bottom line is, there is very little known about Covid-19 with certitude. Yes, it is known that ultimately the disease has pulmonary overtones and that’s where the casualties happen. The route to that has nearly as many options as the specialisations of the people forecasting.
After having recommended observation of coughing patterns and everything from there to the change of the colour of the toe of the foot, somehow, one doesn’t hear too much of these symptoms now. There is talk of suspended particles in moist air and masks have become the new ‘flavour’ of prevention. It is not surprising that savvy media brands have picked up this slogan and for them wearing a mask is the same category of campaign as saving a Tiger. Amen!
Thus it is that a chain of lockdowns followed. They followed with the gush of crusading administrators, till it was realised that effectively, all economic activity had ground to stop. Everything from banging of ‘thalis’ to closing of borders had been tried. The sick could not cross the NOIDA border from one side to the other and Haryana was not to be left behind. A public figure with immense power on health matters, banged the table (and everything else in Haryana) to a point where even the President’s nominee on a committee was not given permission to cross the border in the first instance. Huge energies which would have moved mountains in another land (with due apologies to Brecht) went into pleading permissions to cross borders. On a certain occasion when Haryana Government relented, Delhi government sought its chance to do the sabre-rattling on permission to cross the border.
While all this was happening at the so called border and elsewhere, Covid was silently spreading. First the asymptomatic patient was declared a risk and some according to reports were whisked from their homes to quarantine centres to be put in rooms where even the toilets could cause more infection – in a manner of speaking – than Covid-19. Then of a sudden, a powerful politician in Delhi started regularly gracing the screen, stating, that people with early symptoms need not necessarily go to quarantine centres. The official view of many states on this is yet to come in the form of a circular.
The number of circulars from competent authorities of the Government and elsewhere got so large that a Maharatna company assigned the charge of reading all the circulars and doing a summary, to an exalted official like an Executive Director.
In the meanwhile Covid-19 found its way to individual’s households and offices. Some well-known office buildings of Delhi took turns to close down. Then it was felt that this was not necessary. So much so that even in the quarantine zones full streets were not to be quarantined. They ultimately quarantined the inhabited building of the ill, and some thought that quarantining the flat was good enough. The sub-plot of political tug-of-war had its play-out in the media.
What followed was the unlocking phase 1.0. Concurrently, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, Delhi were fanning shrieking headlines about the numbers rising every day. At least one state, finally, on 14June discovered it needed more hospital beds! (Didn’t somebody also, claim that the lockdown period also had the objective of preparing for a bad Covid19, break?)
It will be cruel to ask the commonsensical question – it does not need an official circular signed by a high powered authority to tell the public that washing hands with soap for 20 seconds is the best instrument of hygiene!
They are finally discovering that person’s personal immunity, healthy hygiene and ‘commonsensical elimination measures of infection are the best way forward.
But the cynic will not be left behind. Every serious step of health, hygiene and common sense he terms a ‘fad’! Jai Ho!!
